My 2024 Trading Summary and Plan for 2025
2024 was a year of ups and downs for me regarding my trading. Here's how it went.
Spring of 2024 - I am the God of Trading!
I funded my account late this year, and everything had already risen in price by the time I got the money into my preferred exchange. Nevertheless, I managed to execute some great trades in March.
The result was a profit of over 50% on my whole portfolio. Then, I made a few costly mistakes and gave it all back in the following months! I married my bags.
Summer of 2024 - I am the worst trader in the world!
I was long when the market shifted from a relentless bull market into a ranging, boring, soul-sucking episode. As usual, I was slow to adapt to new conditions. I always start slowly and finish strong.
The plan was good, but my chosen vehicle was disastrous, and my timing was atrocious! Everything went horribly wrong.
First, I bought a market top for the next few months.
Second, my alts performed horrendously the whole time while bitcoin consolidated.
Third, a leveraged token I bought was delisted at the worst possible time, which meant they sold my position, leaving me with only 20% of my initial investment. If the market doesn’t fuck with you, the exchanges surely will!
Fourth, I kept falling for the bull trap, buying a strong price recovery only to give back paper profits when the price inevitably reversed. I couldn’t see the range for what it was until months passed, and I kept expecting a bullish continuation.
At the lowest point, the result was about 50% draw-down from 2024 portfolio highs. Shameful! For a while I didn’t even want to look at the charts anymore, but like any other abused lover, I kept coming back for more abuse. The market still loves me, I just know it! It will change.
Fall of 2024 - I dare to believe!
Once the stars aligned, I recognized a change in structure and wasn’t wrong this time, so I stepped on the gas. I was already all-in with my spot exposure, which was still deeply underwater, but I used it as a margin and slowly built some larger leveraged positions.
Some were swings I only recently closed, while other trades were flavor of the day type. Some lost money, and some made a lot, more than covering the losses. I kept most of these longs into winter.
Winter of 2024 - Take the money and run!
Doing my analysis, I concluded that the odds were great of increased volatility come December, so I sold everything. I wrote about my reasoning here.
While I remained bullish in the midterm, I was bearish in the short term. It turns out I was right.
Yeah, don’t look at the bitcoin chart. I was a risk-embracing hamster, remember? My positions were mostly spot and leveraged alts like SOL, XRP, and DOGE.
Did I sell the top? No, but close enough. Do I care? Also, no! Had I held onto my positions, I would have given almost everything back to Mr. Market—a whole year's worth of pain and sweat. No, thank you. Not this time!
The end result for this year is a decent profit on my whole portfolio, which is now twice the size as at the start of the year.
Considering where I was smack in the middle of summer when I had to claw my way out of hell, I’m up 400%.
I know it’s nothing to brag about in this space of fake PNLs, but I’ll take it. So, am I happy with my performance? No, not really. I bought the top in the spring and made some stupid mistakes along the way. Some were my fault, others weren’t. In any case, I have allowed for way too much volatility in my portfolio and took on more risk than I probably should. I must do better!
Here’s my takeaway from 2024
When the market isn’t acting the way I believe it should, and I keep getting punished for my trades, it’s best to sit on my hands so I don’t get chopped up.
Also, coincidentally, I make the most money when sitting on my hands when I catch the right market conditions. I made most of my profits by swing trading. Alas, being a full-time trader, it’s difficult to do nothing for weeks, sometimes months at a time.
I’ve also seen multiple local “top” signals but failed to act on my intuition, which is usually a mistake, but I hate shorting what I believe is a bull market.
I noticed that spending too much time on “X” exposed to other trader’s perspectives only hindered my performance and confidence in my thesis.
I conclude that I should trade much, much less, and with more conviction, sizing up when the time is right. It’s more profitable to wait for the right conditions out of the market than trying to extract every last cent from it. Patience is key.
Essentially, I get the best result when I trade very little and trust myself.
What are my plans for 2025?
I am torn about 2025.
I am very bullish on Q1. The odds are good that we will experience a proper bull market blow-off top by the end of the year, not only this diminishing return bullshit (fingers crossed). Anything is possible, though!
However, I also expect another dip before the real fun begins, which is why I’m still entirely in stablecoins.
Later, I see possible turbulence during the summer months, and hopefully one more leg up by the end of the year. I aim to exit all my positions by the end of Q1, unless something drastically changes.
We have many bullish catalysts with the new US government, especially for bitcoin, but I remain skeptical of how this will play out. It can’t be that easy - can it?
I also don’t like Michael Sailor’s “hostile takeover” of the bitcoin network by issuing ridiculous debt in his free money glitch. I understand he supposedly can’t get liquidated, but I don’t like any one man having this much power and influence. I like him and his extravagant ways while perceiving him as a risk vector I must keep an eye on.
The other thing that bothers me is that there is a consensus regarding 2025’s performance. Something like bitcoin reaching 150-250,000 USD, no real alt-season apart from some mega out-performance on a smaller scale, and an ending of a bull market in Q1 or Q4 of 2025. I don’t trust myself when my views align with the majority. The majority is never right or something.
Next, I keep hearing a lot of bears talking about a recession and a prolonged bear on equities and crypto. While I see their arguments and understand their logic, I am skeptical of this unfolding because politicians use their money printers to bail out everybody continuously. Bears have been hungry for over a decade in the markets! Why would the printer stop now? Can they even afford to?
I have one final thought I can’t ignore
We’ve relied on market cycles in this market, and they have worked out well for the most part. However, it might be time for a change in this cycle or the next. I envision a change in the market's behavior and a less volatile Bitcoin.
Suppose governments, central banks, and businesses buy bitcoin as a global reserve. That would question the whole four-year cycle based on the halving, as the buying pressure would overrun any supply mechanics.
Anyway, I guess we’ll just have to take it one day at a time. For now, we buy the dip or the reclaim and ride together to Valhalla! Just remember to take the profits this time.
Not financial advice and all he rest! I don’t know what I’m doing, this is just my little journal. Like, share, and subscribe like your life depends on it, because why not.