Bull Market - Why I Sold and Why You Shouldn't

Is this the end of the crypto bull market? Has it only just began? Is there still money to be made? Oh, and happy 100k BTC if you're celebrating. Let's talk.

I’ve made good money in three bitcoin bull cycles

It was nothing to write home about by crypto standards, but it was a great achievement, with 300% to 400% on my whole portfolio in a few months by any other standard. Sometimes, it’s good to keep our perspective in check. No, I’ve never been happy with my performance, as I could have always made a lot more. It is what it is.

Take your money and run

The problem is that bull markets end one day, and 95% of people give their profits back to the market. If you've made good money, don't be greedy!

• Don't give it back because you want to add another zero to your portfolio.

• Don't assume these conditions will continue forever.

• Don't keep buying every dip and adding to your losers because one day, it could be tomorrow, the market won't be there to save you! (I speak from experience)

I have already reached this point

I bought the top in March and endured a painful season of chop, during which I lost too much money. However, I then got to milk this bull run and made good money percentage-wise.

Therefore, I have sold everything to ensure I get to keep what I killed. Profits are only real if you take your money out of the market. Promises were made, and promises were kept—to myself and to my family.

Keep in mind that this decision is personal

Unfortunately, I don't trade money that I can afford to lose. Having a family adds a ton of pressure, so I must remain responsible at all costs.

I will keep a small amount in the market, but knowing that 90% of my funds are safe, I can sleep easier now. I remain a bull and aim to make more money this cycle. I’ve just eliminated the worst-case scenario of getting a nasty surprise and losing more money than I am willing to at this point.

Hopefully, you are in a completely different situation and can milk this market for much more money. I'm rooting for you!

Does this mean I believe that the bull market is over?

No! I do, however, believe that we are entering a more volatile phase of the market. I expect further pumps but also painful dumps.

How comfortable are you with this option?

• Can you handle a 50% dump on your altcoin, for example?

• Will you be sorry you didn’t take any profit?

• Will a move like that liquidate you?

• What if, though highly unlikely, this ends up being the top?

Danger, danger!

Since I was trading like a degen with nothing to lose, all-in with my whole portfolio and leveraged up, I sensed it was time to pull back and recess. I felt imminent danger. I don't know if it was coming from myself or Mr. Market.

You must be extremely careful when using leverage, as one quick wick to the downside can wipe you out clean! You must keep this from happening when you've made some tangible money. Holding obscure altcoins may not lead to liquidations, but I fail to see the difference, as 99.99% will end up at zero anyway.

Walk away on the top of your game

Protecting your money is your number one priority in this game. Remember always to manage risk and expect the unexpected.

When you feel overly bold and think you can do no wrong in the market, keep winning, and increase your position size and risk, it's time to pull the plug. Close your positions and recess the situation objectively.

If you haven't experienced what making money in the market does to your mentality, you have no idea of the danger you're exposed to! You are not seeing straight, and you are not objective. If you hadn’t made and lost a fortune, you don’t know what you’re risking either.

When you're on your winning streak, emboldened by a raging bull market, you're like a drunken idiot in a bar who's seen one too many kung-fu movies and now thinks he can beat the world champion in a fair fight. You feel invincible! In truth, you're just delusional, and you will get your ass handed to you so hard it will take years to walk straight again. Mark these words! None of us are immune.

It takes a few painful lessons and fortunes lost to grasp this lesson truly: Never allow your emotions, fear, or greed to take your money. You are your own worst enemy in trading.

I've been there more than once and observed it in everyone who ever touched trading and investing. Fortunes were made, and fortunes were lost.

I still believe there is more upside in the market

Perhaps even more than we think, but it's a volatile world out there, so who the hell knows? I dislike making price predictions because they're just guesses anyway. No one sees the future, so don't be fooled by bold claims and predictions.

Instead, I offer you my ever-evolving thesis for 2025:

• I expect deeper corrections going forward. 20% or more on Bitcoin and 30-60% on alts. Volatility into the new year and around Trump's inauguration. A deeper dip sometime in the next few weeks is quite probable. Can you handle it?

• Assuming trend continuation, another bull leg up to the end of Q1, maybe April is expected. Most likely, the biggest one yet.

• Then I expect a down summer. If we run hard for a few months, a cool-off period is to be expected. This will get painful if you don’t take profit, friends.

• Maybe, and I'm not overly confident about this, there will be another strong leg in Q3/4 of 2025.

• Cyclically speaking, this would be the top, if not in Q1, and another few years of bears being in charge would typically follow.

Again, I don't know the future and could be completely wrong about this. The bull can end tomorrow or never.

Things have changed for bitcoin

Bitcoin could become part of the US global reserves, and more countries could follow their lead. Since this market is no longer some geeky obscure playground, though it's still plagued with scams and worthless vomit-inducing crap, we could see an end to the classic bitcoin-led cycles.

Bitcoin is not the same as crypto!

I would love to see bitcoin finally separate itself from the rest of the crypto market, as they really shouldn't even be in the same category.

• One is the best money ever invented.

• The other cryptocurrencies and tokens are mostly scams, memes, and gambling products.

Should this occur, I can see the following shift (dammit, I've trapped myself in predictions again):

• Bitcoin goes mainstream, with more institutional, governmental, and smart-money adoption, while alts remain a gambling casino.

• Dips become shallower, and growth more sustainable. With large funds, businesses, and whole countries buying bitcoin regularly, volatility would subside. This or the next cycle, but it’s coming.

• There is a scenario where hyperbitcoinization happens, and this would change everything. I even wrote a fictional story about it.

But what if?

There is also the ever-looming threat of war and a larger economic crash.

The signs have been there for a while. Europe is suffering economically, and while the US is good at manipulating numbers to paint a pretty picture, we can see the cracks underneath the smiles. Housing and the car industries are also slowing down radically.

The market looks strong - there is no need to panic or become a bear.

The things I'm describing are signs of danger to keep at the back of your mind, but they don't mean anything when countries have the power to print money out of thin air and inflate the markets.

I suspect inflation is here to stay.

All countries are so buried in debt that near-zero inflation means bankruptcies of whole nations. They need the inflation so they can keep paying off the interest on their debt.

They also need lower interest rates and a strong economy for the money to keep rolling in. Fun times. If politicians have a say in it, money will be printed, and the caravan will keep rolling on, disregarding reality and hurting future generations in the process, but maybe they'll get to keep their jobs.

Retail is here - run and hide?

Up until a few weeks ago, we claimed retail hadn't joined the game. This is no longer true. How can you tell? Just look at the news and the coins that are pumping. When dinosaur coins (2017 era or older) are pumping, think XRP, ADA, NEO, ETC, EOS… you know retail is back and is buying the only coins they know.

Make your money with them, enjoy these couple of weeks, maybe months, but then get out before they do!

Remember - the retail, the late arrivals never make money in this market. They are the exit liquidity for the insiders, who have been accumulating through the bear market. Be the market predator, never the prey! When everyone is making money in crypto, run like hell.

Retrospection on my trading

Know yourself and where your "edge" lies in this market.

I've done my analysis, and based on thousands of trades in the last couple of years, I've realized where I make the most money and where I give most of it back. One thing is knowing. Another is sticking to it. Unfortunately.

For me, and only me, this means I have to focus on swing trades and larger time frames, refrain from overtrading and scalping, and leave the obscure alts to the trench warriors. The problem is I hate sitting on my hands. Idle hands are the Devil something something…

I think I should get a job to supplement my trading, not only to release some psychological and financial pressures but also to keep myself busy. As a full-time trader, I feel like I have to trade every day and monitor the market like a hawk—you know, like at a job. But my data shows this is the last thing I should do!

The less I trade and spend looking at the charts, the more money I make. The more I try to force my will on the market and milk every opportunity, the less I make overall. Go figure.

Final words - expectations and comparisons

Don't look at all those internet people with their stories of instant riches. Yes, they are possible, but they are rare, and those who get to keep them are rarer than unicorns. Some people also win the Lottery, but it's not a strategy for making money, and most lose it all in the end.

Keep your expectations reasonable, and ensure you keep what you kill in the market. When you feel pressure to add risk because you feel FOMO (fear of missing out), remove it instead. Play the game, go with the trend, grab the bull by the horns, but always expect the unexpected, stay flexible, and protect your money.

While we all have different risk profiles and tolerances, there's no point in making a lot of money only to give it back because you wanted even more. Keep the greed in check, my friends. Find a way to be content with what you make and regularly remove money from this market, or the market will find ways of robbing you blind.

The only possible exceptions would be those simply stacking sats (bitcoin) for the long run. This has been and most likely will remain a winning strategy.

Good luck out there!