Is the Bitcoin BULL market party starting?
History does not predict the future, but Bitcoin likes to adhere to cycles. November 2024.
I’ve been bullish for a long time—too long, in fact—and it has cost me money in this chop. Still, I’m team Bull all the way.
The most bullish chart ever
There’s no denying that the monthly looks phenomenal.
Weekly is also starting to look good, though we’re not entirely out of the woods yet.
By most definitions, we are now TRENDING UPWARD, though we are still under resistance, the final boss of all all-time highs.
Technically, we’re still trapped in a range, but this time might actually be different, and we get to poke through. We’ll see.
On daily, the trend is up with a lovely sequence of higher lows and higher highs
I like what I’m seeing, and I’m holding my longs: spot and perp.
A 20-30% profit is tempting, but I cannot shake the feeling that if I exit my position now for this small but safe profit, I will miss the train to get back in, waiting for lower prices. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be the first time.
For the moment, I remain an optimistic bull and attempt to add on dips should we get any significant pricer retracements. This is a swing trade I would like to compound slowly and wisely so that I can sleep at night.
Protecting capital with stop losses has been difficult lately. Going into a potentially volatile event—the elections—I’m being careful with position sizing. Slow and safe is the name of the game.
I am aiming for the all-illusive HAPPY EITHER WAY mentality:
If the price continues to increase - great, I’m making money.
If the price dips and offers a scarry discount - great, I get to buy more and compound.
Yeah, I also feel underexposed, though I am ALL-IN x2.
A quick overview of “fundamentals:”
ETFs are buying like crazy, and more banks advise their clients to invest in Bitcoin. Every day, you hear of some company or respected individual admitting to investing in Bitcoin. I see a persisting shift in public perception.
The political sphere in the USA (the only one that matters) seems inclined to help support Bitcoin instead of suppressing it if Trump wins. Take all those promises with a grain of salt because politicians say what they think you want to hear and then do what makes them more money. Personally, I think the elections will be a nothing burger regardless of the winner. Bitcoin is apolitical.
Alts are dead, more or less, apart from a few exceptions. Alt season usually follows a proper Bitcoin rally once it settles down. Let’s not forget that the tide lifts all boats. I'm not sure about dino coins, though. I would stick to new memes, Solana, and AI-themed make-belief crap, as it seems to be in season.
Crypto Twitter is full of blockchain analysts who claim that a record number of new holders are being created as the big whales accumulate and remove coins from exchanges.
Rates should probably get cut again, so it’s a “risk on” general market situation.
Wars are still being fought, and by the looks of it, there are still cool heads in the desert, so there shouldn’t be any insane escalation (fingers crossed).
I sense that a lot of sidelined capital in crypto wants to enter the market after an all-time high break. I still claim that “retail” (that is not you and me) still isn’t here. No “normie” friends and family are asking me about crypto advice, so we’re still early or something.
Bitcoin's dominance keeps growing, which is a good thing
We need Bitcoin strength first, and then the shitcoin sandbox can have it’s fun. If “we” jump into altcoins too soon, we distribute a somewhat limited buying power, and the rallies are over prematurely. Maybe wealthy bankers and billionaires buying Bitcoin are our friends, after all (lol)?
Bitcoin cycles predict a crazy bull party soon
Here’s a visualization of a few cycles. The point is that time-wise, we are right where we should be if this breakout is to be successful. Never forget - no one knows the future; we’re all just speculating, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
According to my infallible (joke) calculations, we are entering the final leg of the bull market—in some ways, the real bull market, as we decisively break above the previous all-time high.
I’m expecting (my working thesis):
6-12 months of a proper bull market (pretty please).
A cycle top sometime in 2025 if nothing breaks the cycle again—ideally, September to November, not sooner.
If the theory of diminishing returns rears its ugly head again, Bitcoin's price should increase by at least 50% of the previous cycles. It could end up somewhere around 150,000 USD per one magic internet money.
I allow myself the hope of a pleasant surprise, though. I don’t think this lower and lower profitability will forever be a thing, as there are infinite possibilities for the story of Bitcoin to transcend its current status: it becoming a global reserve currency, a few large countries accepting it as an official currency, large companies following the example of Microstrategy and Tesla, or the US treasure deciding to gamble on solving their debt crisis by hodling Bitcoin.
Certain altcoins will hugely outperform Bitcoin, price-wise, but I do think the whole of altcoin, and especially the meme-coin market, has become too saturated for everything to “go to the moon.” There are over 2.52 million cryptocurrencies in 2024 to date.
There you have it. Bullish until proven otherwise is the way to go. If we get a dip, I believe it’s worth buying and buying big. I could be wrong, but this is where my money is.
Enough words, back to work. Good luck!
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