I’ve Been in Crypto Since 2017 - My Honest Opinion
Is crypto still worth paying attention to? Was it ever? Has the ship sunk, and we’re the violinists on the deck comforting each other?
Like many, I had high hopes for the cryptocurrency markets. Decentralizing everything, including the internet, computers, and the ultimate money, all sounded good. Crypto has been around for about 15 years now. It was supposed to be the next big thing. Everyone was supposed to use it by now. Everything was supposed to be tokenized and placed on a blockchain. Did any of it come true?
The short answer is no, except partly for Bitcoin
There have been many attempts to bring crypto out of the “get rich quick” sphere. All have failed. We had decentralized blogging, social media, apps, and, most prominently, decentralized financing.
It’s not that they didn’t work per se. They never reached sufficient popularity and recognition outside die-hard crypto users. Even the most brilliant idea serves no purpose without users or clients.
Sure, we could argue that we are in the same situation as the internet in the 2000s. There was initial overhype, a horrible cool-off, and then good, lasting, meaningful projects emerged. Sure, it’s possible. In fact, I hope it is. I love the decentralized concept and freedom it enables.
Thus far, I’m not too optimistic
I don’t love the new “features” in crypto, but I guess I could be getting old. Expensive 1990s-looking images don’t do anything for me. I find them absolutely worthless nonsense. Memes are fun while in use but a silly form of money.
Most other projects remain a “money-extracting machine” and nothing more. Big words, but zero substance behind them. I hoped I was wrong when I proclaimed 99% of crypto projects to be scams. As it turns out. I was right.
It’s not over until the fat lady sings, or in our case, it is over when anorexic geniuses responsible for billions jump on stage, acting like absolute buffoons! I’m embarrassed for them and for having any association with this space. Honestly.
Fundamentally, then, we got nowhere
Even the greedy retail has completely lost interest. How do we know? Have you seen the price action in traditional markets compared to crypto? Gamblers have returned home. Enough said!
A lost decade in the cryptocurrency trenches
I have an unshakable feeling that I may have wasted all this time learning about the cryptocurrency markets. It would appear that spending time and focus on crypto is only sensible for about three months every couple of years.
Looking at altcoins, things are even more dreadful.
The rest of the time, it’s either abhorrently painful or just plain boring. We happen to be in the later phase right now. We haven’t moved in about eight months. I dare you to look at gold and stocks in the meantime. Yeah, something is amiss, friends.
PS: please, for the love of God, take profits when you make money in crypto. The alternative is the usual -95%, more or less, and overwhelming odds of never seeing your portfolio all-time highs again!
The problem is that once you step foot into this domain and get a taste of what is possible, it’s almost impossible to escape it. Loses are painful, but the dream of making it big never dies.
It would appear that crypto, especially Bitcoin, has become a part of us. Half my social media and personal interactions revolve around crypto. I don’t know that I could ever completely abandon it, despite every rational bone in my body telling me I’ve done fucked up.
I still believe
I still believe in Bitcoin. I’m getting the feeling that our estimates for growth have been grossly overestimated. It’s going up, sure, gaining broad adoption, but instead of a rocket ship, it’s the slowest snails recently. Expectations are a bitch.
I still believe that the winners from this space, whoever they are (they’re probably not even here yet), will be huge winners. Think social media, artificial intelligence, and search engine giants big.
I still believe that trading is the best way for me to achieve financial independence, and I see no alternative paths toward that goal yet. So, I’m sticking around, even if it’s just with one foot in the water.
I still believe that my time hasn’t been completely wasted. After all, I guess it might be time to pivot to stocks and hope we’re not near another lost decade in that market as well. They do happen, you know. (NASDAQ chart below)
You’ll notice I haven’t been writing on this publication all that often lately. I didn’t find the inspiration, to be honest. I write a lot on other topics that interest me a million times more right now.
Check them out here.
What about the markets?
They suck, that’s what! “A new higher low. A new wannabe higher high. We’re going to 100k! Woohoo!” And yet, nothing is happening except the now standard roundtriping on all swing positions. Watching the paint dry is more fun.
I remain bullish, but I am questioning my sanity. Large time frames show nothing to worry about. The Fed has lowered interest rates, legacy markets are up-only, and cyclically, we should start the next leg up. I’m here for it. I’m waiting and watching, fully in positions like an idiot.
Did you know that trading and investing are often all about waiting?
Waiting to get a good position, waiting for the positions to play out, waiting for profits, waiting for trends to change, waiting, waiting, waiting.
Like the Night’s Watch of the Game of Thrones, we watch diligently for any movement on the horizon. The winter is coming, and we can only hope some action will accompany it as well. The good kind, mind you!
Be well, friends.