Bull Markets Are Awesome, But They Also Suck!
When it’s “ape season,” and you’re not an ape, you’re in trouble and will be left on the sidelines watching other apes get rich while you sit in cash feeling stupid.
We all love bull markets, parabolas, and making money. I know I don’t show it, but I like money too. The love is not always reciprocated, though. My history with bull markets, and there have been a few, is mixed. Especially in crypto, where doubling your money in a few weeks is considered “coping” and other derogative terms. In short, you're a loser if you’re not making at least a 10x. Well, Loser is my middle name, and here’s my confession.
Why I suck at trading bull markets?
Problem number 1: I’m a contrarian by nature
This is a real problem. Don’t laugh. I can’t follow anyone without understanding the “why,” and if too many people agree on something, I panic. When everybody is screaming and chanting, “We’re all gonna make it, to the moon, up only,” and the rest of the meme chants, I feel an irresistible urge to back away from the crowd, sell everything, and go in the other direction.
The experienced investors said that the majority is always wrong, and I tend to believe them. But here’s the catch. For the majority of the bull market, that simply isn’t true. It’s a bull market because everyone and their grandmas are buying. Fight that force at your peril.
Problem number 2: Bull markets hurt me right here (he points to his wallet)
It all started back in 2008. Everyone was making money in the stock market and the real estate business. I entered the game, barely of legal age and went all-in. You remember what happened in 2008, right? I got burned along with countless millions of other “gamblers.”
It’s simple math. When your first meeting with a bull market is painful, something within makes a note of it, and you will struggle to go along with the masses from that point forward.
I also started trading crypto full-time in 2017. Care to guess what happened in 2018? That’s right. Pain. Pain happened, accompanied by misery and losses. I lost everything again. Well, not everything at once, but in about two years, I managed to eat and spend all that was left of my once decent trading account. Being without a job is no fun in a bear market. There’s a reason I keep banging on about risk management.
Problem number 3: I can’t buy high
I have this problem with buying expensive things, especially in the markets. I want to buy the blood, the panic, the dump, not the pump and consolidation. Coincidentally, many bull markets don’t give you great entries, and you miss most of the moves unless you simply smash that green button.
I’ve been on the right side of the market for most of the bull trends in the past but have often stayed empty-handed as my entries (too conservative) were never hit. I calculated the perfect entry, be it a pullback or a retest of former resistance, now support, but the market never got there.
In a bull market, you buy high or watch everyone else get rich from the sidelines.
Problem number 4: I need money to pay my bills and don’t have extra income
That may not seem like a big deal, but I assure you, it is. If you have a choice, don’t quit your day job! In bull markets, it’s best to buy, keep buying, and hold until some sort of top is formed. You can’t do that and forget about the money unless you have other means of paying your bills.
Scared money also doesn’t make money, which is as close to a universal truth as I can find. I am too focused on managing risk to allow myself to bet big without an exit strategy. In a bull market, that will inevitably leave money on the table. Money that will go away when the market turns sour, and people who made the most will give it all back.
Problem number 5: I can’t be a brainless ape
Bull markets are riddled with opportunities, especially in stocks and cryptocurrencies. The people who make the most money are usually the ones who think the least. They just buy on every good tip, long every minuscule pullback, buy every breakout, and hold their absolute trash of an instrument through the manic phase of the bull market.
The most horrific of crypto trash will pump the most but for a limited time. The newer and the sillier (grandiose) idea being pushed, the more people will jump on the bandwagon. I can’t for the life of me buy and hold something so utterly stupid and pointless as 99.99% of shitcoins.
So that’s the excuses out of the way. Shall we do better this time around? Only time will tell. The pain of bear markets is difficult to forget. This one was just boring for me. No losses, no pain, except boredom. I’ve practically lost any interest in the markets and trading.
Can you blame me after more than 500 days of “the eternal range of doom?”
There is always hope that in the next bull cycle, we’re going to make it big. Good luck to us all, and may the Gods of fortune and beef smile upon us!
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