Bull In a China Shop Situation
February 2025 Crypto Market Thoughts. Still bullish Q1, or is Trump ruining the party for everyone?
Trump of 2025, based though he may be, is a very unpredictable beast. This may be good for the USA in the long term, and I’m all for long-term thinking, but it is volatile in the short and midterm. That volatility is naturally expressed in the markets.
I remain an optimist, and I’m still looking for longs
I’ve been more or less flat and uncomfortable in usdt since I exited the market at the end of last year. I failed to take advantage of the dips because I allowed the bearish sentiment to get under my skin. Mistakes were made!
A month later, in the middle of January, the markets looked like they were going to explode. I took a calculated risk that seems much less calculated now, to take some exposure on the most volatile of assets in our sandbox. Those that just happen to be going in only one direction since - down! Great success (in the voice of Borat).
The idea was simple: long a smaller position with the most potential upside in case we pump, and long quality assets from lower, should the market Gods give us the opportunity. I have regrets, but that’s the name of this game.
The plan remains the same
If we revisit the lower side of the Bitcoin range, long Bitcoin or Solana with size for another leg up.
Sell by April or May at the latest, when I expect a slow and red summer.
If this is the end of the bull market, wait for a bounce (pray) and get out with as little damage as possible.
If we catapult upward from here, look for an entry on a pullback and ride this train to Mars.
Since I can’t see the future, I am forced to take bets and manage my position as the market shows its true intentions. It’s not fortune telling but trading, which is essentially just managing risk and playing with probabilities.
For now, I believe the odds are good of seeing higher prices in the coming months. That can change in an instant, though, so we must remain vigilant.
The market has changed, and traders are struggling
As soon as you believe you have figured out the market and its dynamics, the market changes!
We had it all figured out:
After a blow-off top, we get one last hooray of an alt season, then a year or two of a devastating bear market, and then about 1-3 years of a bull market, all neatly synced with Bitcoin halvings.
Bitcoin bottoms and pumps first, then alts have their time in the sun, following in an orderly fashion from large caps to small caps.
The tide eventually lifts all boats and saves the overexposed.
Every cycle is different but the same. This one is showing one stand-out difference. There are simply too many altcoins for everything to pump in the so-called alt-season.
Yes, select altcoins go on insane runs, but most struggle immensely. Most altcoins are in bear markets, while bitcoin and a small party of altcoins are creating overnight millionaires in a bull market. See charts below. Catching the right ones is a mission impossible for most, I’m afraid.
We also jumped the previous all-time high ahead of schedule and then collectively lost our minds in the choppy 2024 that followed. Luckily, the end-of-year bull trend saved our behinds.
Now, we have the most crypto and bitcoin inclined US government, but it came with Donald Trump, who destroyed the meme coind market when he launched his Trump coin, followed by the extremely idiotic Melania launch that annihilated the first launch.
If I weren’t so “blinded” by the cycle theory, I would call that the great top of the crypto market! Alas, I persist, shakingly so.
We started the year excellent, collectively screaming, “We’re going to be rich,” and then ol’Trumpy boy started trade wars with half the planet. What do tariffs on Mexico and Canada have to do with your fartcoin? Nothing, but the markets are correlated and ruled by psychology. In times of uncertainty, market participants go “risk-off,” and I can’t think of anything more extreme in risk terms than your trashy meme coins and other shitcoins bound for extinction.
What now?
Significant changes take time to show results, and I believe (hope) we are experiencing something similar now.
The US-led embrace of bitcoin, and hopefully not just scammy shitcoins, is a tectonic shift and should spread across the world. While immensely impactful for the market, whether the US government accepts a bitcoin strategic reserve or not is not the only game in town.
Even just regulatory clarity, possible tax exemptions, acceptance of this market in general, and allowing banks to offer bitcoin and other cryptocurrency products is a giant step forward.
Yes, I agree, “fuck the banks” and “be your own bank with bitcoin” is a lovely sentiment. However, it is an ideal that is unrealistic in today’s world.
These things take time
The market unfortunately expected, for whatever reason, that Trump would announce some ground-shattering news regarding bitcoin strategic reserves, and anything less has had a disappointing effect, visible in the charts.
Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but this train only goes one way - with or without the world governments - up and to the right!
I admit that when I first started trading Bitcoin, I struggled to imagine it ever reaching 10,000 USD. However, I can now easily envision a world where one orange magic internet money is worth north of a million dollars. The acceptance and reputation of Bitcoin have changed dramatically in the last ten years.
Should the trend continue, the sky is indeed the limit. The whole 21 million bitcoin divided by infinity might not be just a meme, after all. It won’t go up in a straight line, though. Probably, anyway. If I’ve learned one thing from the markets, it is that everything takes longer, dips lower, and eventually exceeds my expectations to the upside.
My plan then is simple, but the dip, should the prices continue lower or buy the breakout if I miss the bottom. I don’t care either way. I remain bullish, and if I’m wrong, I will pay a price—no risk, no profit, unfortunately.
I think there’s a good chance that the bitcoin price range lows around 90-ish hold. I remain bullish, if only in spirit, even if we retest the previous cycle’s all-time high. Financially, however, I will be in temporary hell, haha! Easy money, my ass!
Always manage risk and all the rest, dear friends. In this market, I would advise sticking to small positions and always having some free cash, as it’s just too choppy for large sizing with tight invalidations. For me, at least.
A quick glance at some incredible charts
Bitcoin is bullish, sticking to the upper side of the latest range, barking at resistance. It looks good on all time frames.
The S&P 500 is bullish and has just reached a new ATH. There are a lot of macro challenges, including the whole cheap Chinese AI (DeepSeek), Tarif wars, and an unhinged US government, so … who the hell knows what will happen?
Altcoin majors look alright-ish. There is room for more downside, but generally speaking, I could still call it a consolidation in a bull trend.
Meme coins have been hit the hardest. The favorites of 2024 have been completely forgotten in 2025, which is probably why everyone seems to be so depressed, while the king - the all-mighty Bitcoin - is humping new all-time highs. There’s a lesson here somewhere. I’m sure of it.
Good luck out there, and be prepared for anything.