2024 Bitcoin Price Charts and Thoughts

Up, down, sideways, ATH, one billion dollars for one magic internet money coin?

Disclaimer: I suck at predicting price, especially tops, less so bottoms. This is just for fun, and as I’m doing the analysis, I thought I would share it with my readers. 

ETF is about to be accepted, or so we’re told.

Any minute now. Crypto typical, there’s been some shenanigans with fake X, formerly known as Twitter, announcements from the SEC. The faithful watchdog ends up being the one intentionally or unintentionally manipulating the market. Classic!

Anyway, there are a lot of theories floating around regarding the next year. Most believe it will be bullish, while some predict a less obvious path or crabbiness (ranging). Personally, I think (but I don’t know) that the next two years will be bullish. 

I also think a panic-inducing event is just around the corner.

Probably a “sell the news” thing, or it could be something else. If it’s a rejection of the ETF, all bets are off, and we could see a COVID-19-like armageddon. Still, the odds favor acceptance of ETFs and less of a correction. At least that’s what the tea leaves are saying, lol.

ETFs are bullish. I’m sure most agree on that. They open the door for big money to start playing in our sandbox. I think playing might be the wrong word. Dominating? Destroying? Pillaging? What happens when big kids enter the small kids' sandbox in the park? They support and uplift the little guys and share their loot? Right? Right? I do wish it were so. 

I’m expecting some violent manipulation and pillaging, to put it simply. One where our interests are still aligned. Hopefully. I’m old enough to remember “institutions are coming to Crypto in 2017” and the devastation that left us with.

Let’s start with where we are. The price had been rising for 420 days, and we’re up by about 200% from the bottom.

So what happens next?

We have three predictions in general:

• Up only, moon, ETF makes billions sitting on the sidelines, entering with lust and passion, taking this thing to unimaginable heights.

• It’s a sell-the-news event. This rally is fueled by ETF rumors and will need to cool off after the news of their actual acceptance. Then, we can resume the bull trend.

• It’s a trap. Everyone expects this to be bullish, so it won’t be. Everyone believes in a new ATH (All time high) in 2024, so we won’t see one until 2025. The down portion will go deeper, and then it will just range and drive everyone insane.

To which camp do you belong?

I expect a sharp, perhaps even deep cool-off - a correction for a few weeks to a few months at most. I will note that I feel stupid predicting that, as the price has been mostly up-only for the past year, without healthy retracements. Now we have seriously good news of multiple ETFs being accepted, and the halving is nearing. Two very bullish things, indeed. 

One must be aware of their own biases, and here are mine:

• I have zero exposure at the moment because I expect a correction, and the risk-reward doesn’t seem to justify entering a position trade at the moment (too little upside, too significant potential downside). This makes me WANT a correction and DISLIKE price going up. I must make a mental note of that, as I’m not entirely unbiased! 

• I still don’t like the legacy markets and rates tightening, and it just “feels off” despite the charts looking okay.

• I want to enter a long-term position for the foreseeable future, but not here. I want a discount, which I believe I’ll get. How much? I’m still debating that with myself—at least 20%, if not more. I could be wrong, of course.

I’m not advising anyone to follow my lead here! 

Especially if you’re already in a position from lower. It’s a bull market in general, and prices can keep going up, leaving side-liners like myself behind empty-handed. Still, I can’t buy the top for the life of me. I just can’t.

It feels like walking high up in the sky on a frail stairway that’s about to break any moment now, and I shall disappear into the chasm below.

I humbly admit that I would have been much higher up that stairway (price) had I not feared the whole thing collapsing under my feet, which is why I took profits just under 40,000 USD per Bitcoin. Oh well. I think I’ll get to buy at the same price again and that this is a better time to do so.

Let’s play with some fractals.

Keep in mind that this is not the same market as it was back in the day. Bitcoin has matured a lot. Still, history is history, and for some reason, it likes to at least rhyme, if not repeat. Patterns and whatnot. This is just for fun and orientation. Nothing more!

Below are three bull markets on Bitcoin, complete cycles, in fact (apart from the current one). The yellow arrow indicates where we could be, relatively speaking. It’s just an estimate and a guess. Nothing more, nothing less.

• Note that all the bull markets have had 0.6 or 0.7 FIB retracement and then a sell-off. Could we be right on time for another? 50,00 USD is roughly 0.7 FIB level, and we’re right under it. 

• Time-wise, it took about 700-800 days from the bottom being formed to this new, temporary top being reached (0.6 or 0.7 FB). 

• A cool-off, retracement, or dump always followed. From 25% to 55% (COVID-19 panic)

• From this local bottom onward, roughly 600-700 days of a raging bull market followed! Good times. This is where the majority of money was made. After that, we formed a new ATH (all-time high), and we repeated the cycle.

No, they don’t fit perfectly. Yes, I took some liberties. No, I don’t know if we reach 200,000 USD per Bitcoin in 2025. We’re just playing here! I know nothing. I don’t have a crystal ball.

My point is this.

It would make extraordinary sense that we would top for a few weeks, dump 20-50%, and then continue the bull market toward and past the old ATH. It makes sense to me, but I acknowledge that this time, one large unknown variable is present - the ETFs (exchange-traded funds). 

While I don’t believe they’ll just pile hundreds of billions into Bitcoin on week one, anything is possible. It’s also possible that they’ll dump the market with some bogus FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) campaign to get better prices for themselves. Somehow, I think this is more what THEY would do, but I could be completely wrong.

Who are they? Billionaires, hidden kabbalah that runs the world, Wall Street thugs, bankers, or the freaking lizard people. I don’t know. I suppose those who run the markets and have absurd amounts of money and want to make more of it. That’s who. If the lizard people are reading this, I feel I must mention I like lizards and people, so I’m a fan.

I also noticed an ascending triangle, and with a typical target of the pattern's height, we’re flirting with 50,000 USD, and the 0.7 FIB mentioned above level from the previous ATH. Coincidence? Probably. But It’s just another little indication of a possible target for this move.

Assuming the price doesn’t just fire up boosters and shoot for the moon, once the ETFs are actually accepted, where can we get in and buy for the next phase of this bull market?

Let’s look at two scenarios.

Both bullish. Both within reasonable expectations. Both completely made up!

Zoomed in.

Now, I like the 30,000 USD price level for Bitcoin. This is where I would want to buy and then hold. I’m not so sure, it’s something I will get. Most bull market retracements, and we are in a bull market, are contained to 20-30% on Bitcoin. There are a few exceptions, so there’s always that. 

From this logic, it makes more sense to be aggressive with the entry should we get such a dump in price. Yes, we risk another 20% downside (or more), which is never fun.

This is the downside risk. But what’s the upside opportunity?

The truth is we don’t know. We could easily never see another ATH within this cycle, but it’s not very likely. At least, I don’t think, and that’s the consensus among traders and investors. How far can the price go? We’re venturing into fortunetelling waters again, but let’s just have some fun. I have to warn you, though. Usually, these predictions tend to miss by a country mile, and we end up laughing at what we were thinking way back then.

Let’s look at these five scenarios:

1. We only revisit the old ATH at 67,000 USD (ish).

2. The magic of the round number stops us, this time 100,000 USD per Bitcoin.

3. The diminishing returns theory is correct, and this bull market is half as powerful as the previous one. Therefore, we reach about 150,000 USD, and that’s all she sang.

4. We repeat the lackluster performance of the previous cycle and only achieve about 250,000 USD per one magin internet coin (“only” was a joke).

5. The ETF maxis were right. Billions are pouring in. The “poors” are locked out of Bitcoin, and the price keeps going up and up and up, and we hit 500,000 USD. Congrats, they have all the money again, and we have nothing.

Jokes aside, let’s use these five wholly theoretical targets for 2025 to see the opportunity part of the equation. You will have to measure it for yourself depending on where you bought or will buy.

I will use the -20 % and -40 % scenarios just to see the difference an entry makes.

Here’s the data and the cold, hard realization.

What realization? That unless you’re already pretty rich, you won’t become so with Bitcoin. And on that depressing thought, we end the show, folks. Have a good one, and don’t get too greedy. That’s when they get you!